Wednesday, February 10, 2016

MAT 540 WEEK 5 MIDTERM 2


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MAT 540 Week 5 Midterm 2
1.     Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters. 
2.     An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.
3.     A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval. 
4.     A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches
5.     Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random variables.
6.     A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.
7.     The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.
8.     Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns. 
9.     In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.
10.   __________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.
11.   The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.
12.   Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.
13.   Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine
14.   Consider the following frequency of demand:

           

If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be
15.   Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers.
16.   __________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.
17.   Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
           

 If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with
α = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.
18.   Consider the following graph of sales.



Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
19.   Consider the following demand and forecast.
   
20.   Consider the following graph of sales.




Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
21.   __________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.
22.    rob
 14, and 15)estion worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue units EXCEPT:The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as follows: 
   
23.   Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.
24.   __________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.
25.   The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution.
           
Compute the mean drying time.  Use two places after the decimal.
26.   An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities.  Each person is limited to one entry.

           

The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is ________.
27.   A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75?  Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
28.   A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times?  Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
29.   The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.  The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000). 

                       

If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively, what is the expected value of perfect information?  Note:  Please express your answer as a whole number in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000). 
Round to the nearest whole number, if necessary.  
30.   Consider the following decision tree.



What is the expected value at node 4? Round your answer to the nearest whole number. Do not include the dollar sign “$” in your answer.
31.   A normal distribution has a mean of 500 and a standard deviation of 50. A manager wants to simulate one value from this distribution, and has drawn the number 1.4 randomly.  What is the simulated value?
32.   Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
           

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6.
Use two places after the decimal.
33.   The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.

           

Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.
34.   The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product
   
35.   Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.

           

What is the coefficient of determination? Note:  please report your answer with 2 places after the decimal point. 
36.   Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.
37.   Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.
   
38.   Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.
39.   Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
           

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4.
Use two places after the decimal.
40.   Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.

                       
Year    Demand           Forecast 


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